So, how might this impact Google consumers in the broadest sense? At this scale, we don’t have much precedent. I’m old enough to remember both the Microsoft (2000) and AT&T (1982) antitrust rulings and the long-term reality looked very different from the initial ruling. Obviously, both companies are still alive and well. While the Microsoft ruling was referenced repeatedly in the Google decision, the market has changed dramatically in 24 years.

I think it’s extremely unlikely (again, I’m not a lawyer) that core Google search will be broken up or divested in any substantial way. Even in the ruling, the court recognizes that Google search is a quality product used by a massive customer base. They go as far as to say “[Google] has long been the best search engine, particularly on mobile devices.” (p. 199).

Practically, there’s also no good way to penalize Google’s search usage. You can’t tell consumers to stop using Google search — you can only make it less convenient. The court specifically recognizes “the power of the default” (p. 228) and how difficult it is to change deep consumer habits. Disrupting access to the product could also cause unforeseen harm.

Note that Google argued extensively that it does have search competitors, attempting to expand the definition to include social media sites (Facebook, TikTok, etc.) and major product search engines like Amazon. Ultimately, the court rejected that argument.

We might see some attempt to separate Android from Google or remove exclusivity, but it’s hard to imagine what that would look like. Would Android phones all be required to install Microsoft Edge and Bing by default? That seems implausible and, again, hits consumers.

Much of the ruling focuses on Google’s exclusivity agreements, especially those that clearly favor Google search products and Google Chrome. It’s likely that this will be a focal point of any proposed remedies, which might mean limiting or even invalidating these agreements.

Any forced change to exclusivity would affect Apple in particular and could change their calculations around developing their own search engine. This does very little to reduce barriers to entry, though, and meaningful competition would still require billions of dollars in investment. Only Microsoft has any real head start at this point.